Ask voters what is on their minds two weeks before the midterm election and the answer comes back almost unanimously: the price of everyday life. In the AP-NORC poll taken October 8–12, 85% of voters named the economy and 84% named the cost of living among the most important issues shaping their vote. Pew Research Center found the same thing from a different angle, with 84% of registered voters calling the economy “very important,” the top issue for those backing Republican candidates (82%) and for those backing Democrats (88%) alike.
That is not a partisan talking point. It is a shared American experience, and it deserves a serious answer rather than slogans.
What the numbers actually say
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 3.7% over the year ending in September, up from a 3.4% pace in August. The pain is concentrated where families feel it most. Over the same twelve months gasoline rose 34.2%, fuel oil rose 74.2%, and airline fares climbed 22.4%. Electricity was up 4.4% and shelter 3.2%.
At the pump, AAA data cited by CNBC put the national average at $4.33 a gallon on October 14, up 45% from $2.98 on February 27, the day before the war with Iran began. Diesel, the fuel that moves our groceries, crops, and freight, averaged $6.30, roughly 68% above its prewar level. CNN, reviewing AAA data, counted 165 days this year with the national average at or above $4 a gallon, the most in any calendar year since AAA began tracking in 2000.
Borrowing has also become more expensive. CNN reported that average 30-year fixed mortgage rates have reached 7.4%, a nearly three-year high, after the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in three years. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimates the war has cost U.S. consumers about $265 billion since late February, roughly $2,000 per household. The White House disputes his analysis, and readers should weigh both sides. But no one disputes what the price tags at the gas station and the grocery store show.
Economists also point to more than one cause. CNBC’s breakdown of the September report notes that tariffs and the build-out of artificial intelligence data centers have added upward pressure alongside energy. RBC Economics observed that toys and other largely imported recreational goods posted their largest monthly price changes on record.
A conservative diagnosis: supply, spending, and restraint
Conservatives have long argued that prosperity comes from producing more, not from Washington managing more. When the supply of a vital commodity is disrupted, the answer is to remove obstacles to producing and moving it here at home, not to layer new mandates, subsidies, and price controls on top of a strained market. Permitting reform for pipelines, refineries, and transmission lines is not glamorous, but it is the kind of durable, structural policy that lowers costs for the next shock as well as this one.
We should also be honest about taxes by another name. A tariff is a tax paid at the checkout counter. The Constitution gives the power “to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises” to Congress, not to the executive. Whatever one thinks of trade policy, decisions that raise prices for every household should be debated and voted on by the people’s representatives, in public, where voters can hold them accountable.
Fiscal discipline matters too. Inflation has run above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for more than five years, according to CNBC. A government that spends beyond its means pushes interest rates higher for everyone, from the young couple shopping for a first home to the small-business owner carrying a line of credit. Restraint in Washington is not austerity for its own sake. It is a way to lower what families pay to borrow.
What voters should ask candidates
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell in September to its second-lowest reading on record, and its survey director described frustration over the cost of living “across the political spectrum.” That frustration is legitimate. Channel it into hard questions for every candidate on your ballot, regardless of party:
- Will you support permitting reform that lets America produce and move more of its own energy?
- Will you insist that Congress, not the executive branch alone, vote on tariffs that raise consumer prices?
- What specific spending would you cut to slow the growth of federal debt and ease pressure on interest rates?
- Will you defend the independence of the Federal Reserve while demanding transparency from it?
Candidates who answer with specifics deserve a hearing. Candidates who answer only with blame deserve skepticism.
Your vote is the check
The Founders designed a system where the people correct course at the ballot box every two years. On November 3, that power is yours. Look past the advertising, study the records, and vote for candidates who will restore sound money, abundant energy, and limited, accountable government.
Before you go, tell us where you stand: take our latest poll and see how other Federalist Foundation readers are weighing the issues this fall. Then make a plan to vote on November 3.
Sources
- AP-NORC: Ahead of the midterms, most voters cite the economy and cost of living as top issues (Oct. 15, 2026)
- Pew Research Center: Economy ranks as top issue in midterms for all voters (Oct. 8, 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Prices for gasoline increased 34.2 percent over the year ended September 2026
- CNBC: Here’s the inflation breakdown for September 2026 (Oct. 14, 2026)
- CNN Business: The Iran war is costing American households $2,000 each, Moody’s estimates (Oct. 13, 2026)
- U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 8 (National Archives transcription)
