For years, the immigration debate was a debate about the border. This fall it has become something more complicated. Voters still want a secure border, and they are right to. Now they are also asking how enforcement is carried out inside the country, who is being targeted, and what it is doing to the communities and businesses they depend on. Conservatives who believe in the rule of law should welcome that question, because the rule of law cuts both ways.
Where voters stand
Immigration remains a major issue, especially on the right. Pew Research Center found that 59% of registered voters call immigration “very important” to their midterm vote, including 72% of those backing Republican candidates and 53% of those backing Democrats. The AP-NORC poll conducted October 8–12 found 45% of voters ranking immigration and crime among the most important issues.
But the shape of the issue has shifted. In a Fox News poll conducted September 11–14, 53% of registered voters said the administration’s enforcement of immigration laws has “gone too far,” while 23% said it has not gone far enough and 23% said it is about right. Among those who said it has gone too far, 49% said the wrong people are being targeted and 45% pointed to the use of too much force. The Republican edge on immigration that held for four years has nearly vanished in that survey, with voters now split 48% to 49% on which party would handle it better. As GOP pollster Daron Shaw put it, voters “now think of immigration policy as ICE crackdowns, and many say these have been too aggressive.”
What is happening on the ground
Nowhere is this clearer than in South Texas, home to several of the most competitive House races in the country. A Washington Post analysis of government data found that “at large” arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in South Texas, made in homes, at worksites, and in other public places, rose from about 400 in 2024 to more than 9,000 in 2026. Since the start of the current administration, nearly 80% of those arrested at large by ICE’s Harlingen field office had no criminal records.
The economic effects are visible. The Post reported that construction payrolls in the Brownsville-Harlingen area are down 5% from a year ago, and agricultural jobs in four border counties fell 13% in the year to March. Local builders, many of whom voted Republican, have traveled to Washington to warn that worksite raids were stalling projects. A Cook Political Report–TelevisaUnivision poll found that nearly two-thirds of Hispanic voters in Texas would be less likely to support a candidate who backs the administration’s deportation policies. Nationally, The Hill reported that an NBC News/Telemundo poll showed Democrats leading Republicans 59% to 35% among Latino voters on the generic ballot.
A rule-of-law framework conservatives can defend
None of this changes a basic truth: a nation that cannot control who crosses its borders is not fully sovereign, and laws that go unenforced breed contempt for law itself. Conservatives were right to insist on a secure border. But the rule of law is not the same thing as maximum force. It means enforcing the law as written, with clear priorities, accountability, and due process for everyone the government detains.
It also means putting responsibility where the Constitution puts it. Article I gives Congress the power “To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization.” For decades, Congress has avoided writing a modern immigration law, leaving policy to swing wildly with each new administration’s executive orders. That is a failure of the legislative branch, and it is why employers, workers, and families live with constant uncertainty.
A principled agenda would include:
- Security first: sustained investment in the border, with enforcement focused first on those who pose a threat to public safety.
- Due process and accountability: clear rules for how arrests are made and transparency about who is being detained and why.
- A legal path for needed labor: Congress, not agencies, should create workable guest-worker programs, an idea Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz has floated for construction, according to the Post.
- Respect for federalism: states and localities should be partners, not afterthoughts, in decisions that reshape their economies.
Those ideas are neither soft nor radical. They are what it looks like when government is limited, lawful, and answerable to the people.
Make your voice heard
The next Congress will decide whether immigration policy keeps lurching from one executive order to the next, or whether lawmakers finally do the work the Constitution assigns them. Ask your candidates where they stand on border security, enforcement priorities, and legal work programs, and demand specifics.
Then vote on November 3. And before you do, take our poll to share your view on how immigration law should be enforced and see how fellow Federalist Foundation readers responded.
Sources
- Pew Research Center: Economy ranks as top issue in midterms for all voters (Oct. 8, 2026)
- AP-NORC: Ahead of the midterms, most voters cite the economy and cost of living as top issues (Oct. 15, 2026)
- Fox News Poll: 53% say immigration enforcement has gone too far (Sept. 17, 2026)
- The Washington Post: The border counties that swung to Trump are now short of workers (Oct. 7, 2026)
- The Hill: Trump’s deportation agenda haunts him in 2 high-profile House races (Oct. 5, 2026)
- U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 8 (National Archives transcription)
